hypothetically
Jenn rightly teased me for rehashing my movie list post, but I just couldn't resist. Sorry.
I've thought about writing this up as a more formal essay at some point, but for now will use the blog to help figure out some of my thinking. The bottom line : I'm uncomfortable about the 'scientific method' as it is taught in middle and high schools, particularly with the way in which hypotheses are presented. It may or may not come as a shock that practicing scientists who are extremely successful at advancing the forefront of knowledge stray significantly from hypothesis-driven research as it is conventionally defined. And they need to.
Perhaps scarred just a bit from my own experience, but having seen the 'scientific method' regurgitated enough in print, I am worried about the appearance (and more importantly the consequences) of a too-rigid, rote view of how science is done. I can tell already I'm going to need a couple of posts to explain this right.
In my view the most wonderfully subversive thing about teaching students the hypothesis driven approach to science is that it is supposed to condition students to tackle a problem by asking well-phrased questions. In my view, a hypothesis is a very well phrased question that is asked in a way that can be interrogated by experiment. Is that controversial? Maybe it is.
To be clear, right now my feelings on this are anecdotal and I'm wondering if I have the time/inclination to research this right, but my sense is that there has been a distortion of what a hypothesis should be. My view that a hypothesis should be presented in question format seems to be a minority view. I will call this a question-based hypothesis. But the popular view is that a hypothesis is a guess about how the world works that can be tested by experiment. I will call this a law-based hypothesis, which is admirable on the surface, but quite dangerous.
I've invented a simple example, which is a bit flawed, but shows the point. Suppose your friend the hunter tells you he saw a purple deer once. A scientist who formulates a question-based hypothesis might say: "If I find out what colors of deer are observed in a large population and with what frequency I might spot a trend that will solve this mystery". A scientists who formulates a law-based hypothesis might say: "I assert purple deer are genetically prohibited, simply don't exist and expect that a field survey will show 0 instances of purple deer". After hiring tons of graduate students to perform field work, both scientists count 0 instances of purple deer. The latter scientist submits a manuscript to Nature entitled 'Purple deer do not exist in the wild type population' to state his new law. The former scientist submits a paper to Hunter's Quarterly reporting,'Advice to hunters: although there are no purple deer in the wild, many reddish shades are observed which, when considering the spectrum of light that shines through atmospheric pollution at dawn and dusk when hunting is popular may create an illusion of purple deer'.
A law-based hypothesis promotes the need for a boolean right or wrong answer and tempts one to overstate results (there is no such thing as purple deer). A question-based hypothesis should insist on advancing knowledge (cataloguing deer colors; finding that environmental conditions may trick an observer to perceiving a deer as purple), but does not need to state a law or solve a problem on the first go (since no reasonable experiment can measure the colors of all deer, living or deceased, it is not possible to prove there are no purple deer).